South Africa's 2024 Elections: ANC Faces Historic Low in Vote Share Amid Rising Political Tensions

May, 29 2024

Introduction: The Approaching 2024 Elections in South Africa

The political temperature in South Africa is reaching a boiling point as citizens brace for the 2024 elections that are set to take place on Wednesday. This election carries substantial weight as the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), stands on the brink of a historic low in its voter share. Exit polls are predicting a significant reduction in support for the ANC, from the 57.5% vote share it secured in the 2019 elections to a precarious 40%.

Such figures highlight drastic changes in the political complexion of South Africa, a landscape once dominated by the ANC since the end of apartheid. This election appears to be a critical juncture for the ANC and the country's political future.

The Decline of ANC’s Dominance

Founded in 1912, the ANC has been an integral part of South Africa's history, especially its role in the anti-apartheid struggle. The political clout of the ANC reached its zenith in the 2004 national elections, where it garnered an impressive 70% of the vote share. However, reports suggest that the party's popularity started waning in the subsequent elections. South Africa's citizens have grown increasingly disillusioned with the ANC, citing persistent issues like corruption, unemployment, and inadequate public services.

The downslide in support has been consistent since the peak years, with the ANC seeing a gradual reduction: from 70% in 2004 to 66% in 2009, dropping further to 62% in 2014, and eventually 57.5% in the 2019 elections. Now, with the projected figure at 40%, it begs the question of what has gone wrong for the once-mighty ANC.

Factors Contributing to Political Shift

Analysts believe the ANC's declining fortunes are a result of a combination of factors. Key issues that have contributed to the erosion of the ANC's support base include:

Rampant Corruption: Numerous scandals involving top officials have damaged the party's reputation.
Economic Struggles: High unemployment rates, which stood at around 34.9% in the third quarter of 2021, have made life challenging for many South Africans.
Strained Public Services: Persistent problems in the education and healthcare sectors have frustrated the populace.
Internal Party Conflicts: Factionalism within the ANC has often become a public spectacle, highlighting internal disunity.

In recent times, younger voters, who do not share the historical loyalty to the ANC for its role in the liberation struggle, are seeking alternatives. These educated and socially-active citizens are increasingly favoring new, dynamic parties. Additionally, social media campaigns by these younger competitors have effectively reached the public, filling gaps left by traditional media.

Final Campaign Push: Major Parties Gear Up

Over the weekend, South Africa's political landscape was bustling with fervent activity as major political parties concluded their election campaigns with their final rallies. The ANC, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and other parties left no stone unturned in their efforts to sway the voters. Each party attempted to present compelling visions for South Africa's future, tackling issues ranging from economic policy to social justice.

At the ANC's rally, party leaders exhorted attendees to remain loyal to the ANC's legacy, while promising new strategies to restore the country's economic health and integrity. Despite the enthusiasm displayed by party officials, an undercurrent of tension was palpable as they tried to stave off the anticipated voter shift.

On the other hand, the DA and EFF capitalized on the political instability of the ANC. The DA focused on presenting a structured, governance-driven approach, promising to tackle corruption and improve public services. Meanwhile, the EFF, known for its fiery rhetoric, called for radical reforms, including land redistribution and economic restructuring.

Expert Opinions and Analysis

In a recent interview with eNCA, political analyst TK Pooe provided insights into the unfolding political event. He noted that the ANC's fall from grace wasn't sudden but the culmination of years of declining public trust. Pooe emphasized the growing electoral threat posed by emerging political entities, particularly those targeting the youth and urban voters.

Pooe added, 'The 2024 elections could very well be a turning point in South Africa's political history. The ANC's ability to address its internal issues and reconnect with the electorate will be crucial. It is also essential for the party to realize that the emotional allegiance based on historical achievements is no longer sufficient.'

Concluding Thoughts: What Lies Ahead?

With the election day fast approaching, the anticipation and anxiety among South African citizens are palpable. This election is more than just a political contest; it's a referendum on the ANC's governance and its ability to adapt to a rapidly changing political landscape. Whether the party can halt its decline and revitalize its appeal remains to be seen.

The elections also bring hope for the emergence of new political voices that might offer fresh perspectives and solutions to the nation's many challenges. Voters are poised to make decisions that will shape the future trajectory of South Africa. All eyes will be on the ballots, and the outcome will be a testament to the country's evolving democratic ethos.

As we await the outcomes, one thing is clear: the 2024 elections in South Africa promise to be a defining moment for the nation's political future.